Global air cargo capacity is gradually closing the gap with prior year levels, though the recovery remains uneven across regions and trade lanes, according to Air Cargo News. The data points to a market that is stabilizing but still grappling with structural shifts in how and where capacity is deployed.
The recovery picture
Total available freight ton-kilometers have been trending upward as airlines restore routes, add frequencies, and deploy additional freighter aircraft. The recovery has been most pronounced on trans-Pacific and intra-Asia lanes, where demand fundamentals remain strong.
However, capacity on lanes affected by geopolitical disruption — particularly those routing through the Middle East — remains below historical levels. The rerouting of services adds flight time and reduces effective capacity, even when the same number of flights operates.
Belly vs freighter dynamics
The recovery is also shaped by the divergence between belly cargo capacity (carried in passenger aircraft) and dedicated freighter capacity. Passenger airlines have largely restored their pre-pandemic networks, bringing back belly cargo capacity on many routes. But not all routes have recovered equally, and some airlines have permanently adjusted their fleet mix.
Dedicated freighter capacity has remained relatively stable, with new aircraft deliveries offset by retirements. The Boeing 777-8 freighter program, currently in development, represents the next major capacity addition, but deliveries are still some time away.
Implications for shippers
The uneven recovery means shippers cannot assume capacity is uniformly available. Lane-specific analysis is essential. A trade lane that was easy to book six months ago may now be tight due to carrier network adjustments.
Forward booking, maintaining relationships with multiple carriers through a capable forwarder, and considering multi-modal alternatives remain the best strategies for ensuring capacity access.
ASR WorldWide Express provides clients with lane-specific capacity intelligence and competitive rates across air and ocean modes. Get a quote at shipping@asrwe.com or call +1 786 373 3003.
