The 2026 air cargo market
The air cargo market in 2026 is adjusting to significant structural changes. The suspension of the US de minimis exemption has dramatically reduced low-value e-commerce air shipments from China. Geopolitical disruptions continue to affect routing and capacity. And the balance between dedicated freighter capacity and belly cargo on passenger flights continues to evolve.
Key factors affecting rates
E-commerce volume decline
The suspension of the de minimis exemption in August 2025 triggered a sharp drop in air cargo volumes from China to the US. E-commerce platforms that had been shipping millions of low-value parcels by air have scaled back dramatically. This released significant air cargo capacity and put downward pressure on transpacific air freight rates.
Geopolitical airspace restrictions
The Russia-Ukraine war continues to close airspace over Russia and parts of Eastern Europe, forcing carriers on Europe-Asia routes to take longer paths over the Middle East or Central Asia. The US-Iran escalation in early 2026 has further complicated routing in the Middle East, affecting fuel costs and flight planning.
Capacity dynamics
Airlines have largely restored passenger networks to pre-COVID levels, bringing belly cargo capacity back to the market. At the same time, the freighter fleet expanded during the pandemic boom, creating abundant capacity on most trade lanes. This supply-demand balance favors shippers in rate negotiations.
Current rate ranges
Transpacific rates from China to the US have dropped from pandemic-era peaks of $10 to $15 per kilogram to current levels of $3 to $6 per kilogram depending on volume, density, and urgency. Asia-Europe rates range from $2.50 to $5 per kilogram. Rates within the Americas range from $1.50 to $4 per kilogram depending on origin and destination.
How air freight pricing works
Air cargo rates are based on chargeable weight, which is the greater of the actual gross weight and the volumetric weight. Volumetric weight is calculated as length times width times height in centimeters divided by 6,000. This means low-density cargo such as large lightweight items pays based on the space it occupies rather than its actual weight.
Surcharges including fuel surcharges, security surcharges, and peak season surcharges add to the base rate. Total all-in pricing can be 20% to 40% above the published base rate.
Cost-saving strategies
Consolidate shipments to achieve better volume-based pricing. Optimize packaging to reduce volumetric weight. Be flexible on transit time as non-urgent air shipments can use deferred services at lower rates. Ship during off-peak periods when possible. Consider sea-air hybrid routing that uses ocean freight for the bulk of the journey and air for the final leg.
Get competitive air freight rates from ASR
Our air freight team has relationships with major airlines and consolidators across all trade lanes. We provide competitive all-in pricing with no hidden surcharges. Contact us at shipping@asrwe.com or request a quote at asrwe.com/quote.
