A Critical Deadline Is Eight Weeks Away
With President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping set to meet at the White House on September 24, 2026, US importers of Chinese-origin goods are watching one of the most consequential trade summits of the decade. The two leaders have held talks before — at APEC in South Korea last October, and in Beijing in May — but this summit arrives with a hard commercial clock ticking: the US-China trade truce, which suspended reciprocal higher tariffs and extended 178 Section 301 product exclusions, is scheduled to expire on November 10, 2026. What happens over the next eight weeks will directly determine how much duty US companies pay on Chinese imports heading into the holiday peak and beyond.
What Is Actually on the Table Right Now
Negotiations ahead of the summit are focused on a specific, quantified target. Both countries are seeking reciprocal tariff cuts covering $30 billion worth of goods from each side, with China's Commerce Ministry spokesperson confirming negotiators are striving to implement those reductions "at an early date." The proposed cuts cover non-sensitive goods from both sides, raising diplomatic hopes for a formal trade pact.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed he would meet this weekend with his Chinese counterpart, He Lifeng, ahead of the summit between President Trump and Xi Jinping set for September 24 in Washington. The Financial Times reported the Bessent-He meeting would take place in New York, as the two men have typically met before each US-China leaders' summit to lay the groundwork for the talks.
Highlighting the central role that agriculture is likely to play in discussions, representatives from state-owned food trading firm Cofco may join Xi when he travels to the US.
The November 10 Trade Truce Cliff
The stakes of the summit extend well beyond the $30 billion reciprocal cuts being negotiated. The broader US-China trade truce — reached in November 2025 — packaged several forms of tariff relief that all run out on the same date.
In early November 2025, Presidents Trump and Xi announced what was described as a "historic trade and economic deal." As part of that agreement, 178 tariff exclusions were extended until November 10, 2026, fentanyl-related tariffs on Chinese imports were reduced by 10 percent through November 10, 2026, and maritime sector tariffs under Section 301 were suspended until the same date.
China also removed retaliatory tariffs of 10 to 15 percent on US agricultural goods, suspended export restrictions on gallium, germanium, antimony, and graphite until November 27, 2026, and committed to purchasing 25 million metric tons of US soybeans annually through 2028.
The 178 extended exclusions all expire November 10, 2026. What happens then depends entirely on the state of US-China trade relations at that point. The September 24 summit is the single most important event for determining whether those exclusions are renewed, whether the broader truce is extended, and whether the $30 billion in targeted cuts actually materializes.
The Current Tariff Stack on Chinese Goods
To understand what is at risk, importers need to know where the tariff baseline stands today. The picture is complex because it has moved repeatedly since late 2025.
As of July 23, 2026, USTR announced a new 12.5 percent Section 301 tariff on Chinese goods for China's failure to impose and effectively enforce a prohibition on goods produced with forced labor, effective July 24, 2026. These tariffs are the permanent replacement for tariffs imposed under IEEPA that the Supreme Court struck down in February 2026. The stop-gap 10 percent tariff measure imposed following the Supreme Court ruling was set to expire on July 24, 2026.
Section 301 tariffs still cover most Chinese-origin goods entering the United States in 2026, layered on top of ordinary duties at rates of 25 percent for the major lists and 7.5 percent for another. List 1 covers industrial machinery, electronics, and aerospace products at 25 percent; List 2 covers semiconductors, plastics, and chemicals at 25 percent; List 3 covers furniture, auto parts, and building materials at 25 percent; and List 4A covers consumer goods, apparel, and footwear at 7.5 percent.
Strategic-sector goods face even steeper rates. Electric vehicles remain at 100 percent following the 2024 increase, and EV lithium-ion batteries increased from 7.5 percent to 25 percent in 2024.
Three Outcomes Importers Should Model
No outcome at the September 24 summit is guaranteed. Prudent importers should stress-test their cost models against at least three scenarios.
Scenario One: Deal Reached, Truce Extended
This is the outcome both governments appear to be working toward. If the $30 billion reciprocal tariff cuts are announced at or shortly after the summit and the November 10 truce is formally extended, importers holding the 178 active Section 301 exclusions would receive more time to source strategically. Maritime tariff suspensions would also carry forward. This is the most market-positive outcome, but even a successful summit would not eliminate the underlying Section 301 stack.
Scenario Two: Summit Produces a Framework, Truce Extended Short-Term
Trade will take center stage at the upcoming summit, driven by a hard operational deadline. A research note published by Barclays Bank points out that the temporary tariff truce reached by the two nations is scheduled to expire on November 10. A summit communiqué could extend the truce by 60 or 90 days while negotiators finalize terms, leaving importers in a holding pattern through the holiday peak.
Scenario Three: Talks Stall, Truce Lapses
The stop-gap measures carried hard expiration dates, and a second Section 301 investigation into excess capacity in 60 countries, launched in March 2026, is still ongoing. If the November 10 deadline passes without an extension, the 178 product exclusions disappear, maritime tariffs snap back, and the overall tariff burden on Chinese goods rises materially. Importers without contingency plans would face immediate cost increases on entries after November 9.
What the Summit Cannot Change
Even the most ambitious deal would leave significant tariff layers in place. The Supreme Court's IEEPA decision did not mark the end of the Trump administration's tariffs — tariffs under other legal authorities, such as Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, remain in effect. Certain goods, including all goods already subject to Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum, are exempted from some but not all of the new measures. Importers of steel, aluminum, semiconductors, and other Section 232-covered goods should not expect summit outcomes to provide relief on those rates, regardless of what Xi and Trump announce.
Practical Steps for Importers to Take Now
Waiting to see what emerges from the summit before acting is a risky posture given the eight-week runway to November 10.
Audit your HTS classification against all active Section 301 lists
Determine which of your Chinese-origin goods currently benefit from one of the 178 active exclusions. The exclusion deadline runs through November 10, 2026, with the operative cutoff being entries for consumption made before 11:59 p.m. ET on November 9, 2026. No new exclusion request process is currently open. If your exclusion lapses without renewal, the Section 301 rate applies immediately to entries on or after November 10.
Accelerate shipments on exclusion-covered goods if possible
For goods that carry an active exclusion today, accelerating purchase orders and ocean bookings to ensure entry before November 9 locks in the exclusion regardless of what the summit produces. This is not a long-term strategy, but it is a meaningful way to insulate Q4 inventory costs.
Build both a truce-extended and a truce-lapsed landed-cost model
Your customs broker and freight forwarder can help you model total landed cost under both scenarios for each major product category. Do this before October so you have time to adjust pricing, contracts, and purchasing decisions before the deadline arrives.
Monitor the post-summit executive orders closely
The Trump administration has used tariffs as a tool of trade and foreign policy to facilitate deals with countries involving commitments to make substantial investments in the US. The Court's February decision raised questions about using tariffs to facilitate trade deals, meaning new mechanisms may emerge. Any post-summit executive action on tariff rates or exclusion extensions will require rapid response from your compliance team.
How ASR Can Help
At ASR WorldWide Express, we coordinate with licensed customs broker partners to help US importers stay ahead of exactly these kinds of rapid tariff shifts. Whether you need to model landed costs under multiple Section 301 scenarios, accelerate ocean bookings ahead of the November 10 deadline, or simply understand how the current tariff stack applies to your specific HTS codes, our team is ready to support you. Reach us at +1 786 373 3003 or shipping@asrwe.com to start a conversation before the summit outcome changes the math.
Important Disclaimer
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal, tax, or customs advice. Tariff rates, Section 301 exclusions, and trade truce terms are subject to change rapidly based on executive action and ongoing negotiations. Importers should consult a licensed customs broker and qualified trade counsel before making sourcing, shipping, or classification decisions based on the information presented here.
